One of my favorite bits of internet slang is when people say, “‘so and so’ is a recession indicator”. Most people say this to poke fun at how old music styles and fashion pieces seem to come out of retirement during times of economic crisis – like knee-high Converse sneakers coming back in stock last year, or a recession causing a rise in pop music. Calling something a “recession indicator” is a fun little joke to make – it can help people cope with a stressful and uncertain period – but it can also be taken a little more seriously. In fashion, some use the phrase “recession indicator” with a bit more gravitas, implying that some fashion trends are linked to times of recession. What does this mean, and why does this matter?

When the economy drops, so do the lengths of our skirts. Or at least, such is thought to be true. The “hemline index” is a theory claiming that, in times of financial despair such as a recession, the hemlines of skirts become longer. Although there is no concrete evidence to support this theory, fashion lovers and economists alike draw a few connections between fashion and the economy by observing fashion trends over time. It is believed that shorter skirts, like the flapper dresses of the 1920s and the miniskirts of the 1960s, tend to be popular in times of good economic conditions; whereas longer skirts are trendy during times of economic decline, like the midi skirts during the Great Depression.

More recently, social media has popularized “recession core” through the “quiet luxury” trend, which has been on the rise with more and more people opting for logoless, minimalistic, neutral color palettes and low-maintenance, natural hair colors like “recession blonde/brunette”. A shift towards understated luxury and maintainable looks is an example of people trying to adjust their lifestyle to uncertainty.

After the 2008 financial crisis, the 2010s watched “business casual” become a going out look: blazers, vests, and slacks went from desk to dance floor, as people were trying to cut down costs by creating a more versatile wardrobe instead of buying clothes for different occasions. Business-casual going-out clothes were predicted to make a comeback by Stella McCartney’s Fall/Winter 2025 collection, which featured oversized blazers, midi dresses, slacks, and trench coats. Perhaps we are trying to make office wear cool again, as seen by the “office siren” trend from last year, which promoted button-down shirts and pencil skirts. How does this reflect on the way society interacts with fashion?

Typically, fashion is used as an art form. From intricate high fashion runway looks to aspiring designers experimenting with fabrics on your “for you page”, fashion is used as a means of expressing oneself. However, judging based on the 2010 business casual trend, self-expression can fall on the back burner in favor of cutting back on unnecessary consumerism, making better investments, and simply surviving the world’s perils. 2010 business-casual is an example of people trying to make the best of the hand they were dealt: in order not to sacrifice hanging out with friends and partying, people turn their office wear into party wear, adapting to their situation.

There are other theories from the COVID-19 recession - such as the nail polish index, the moisturizer index, and the mascara index, which observe a rise in different purchases as people were trying to adjust to a new, quarantined mask-wearing reality. Another popular example of a “recession indicator” is the lipstick index, a theory suggesting that during tough financial periods, consumers will indulge in cheaper luxuries since they cannot afford larger purchases. This “mini treat” is a consolation for consumers who are looking for something to remind themselves that “this is fine” - “at least I have my lipstick!”

But why do we care if skirts get shorter? Or if people buy more lipstick? I would argue it is less about this trend itself, but more so in the way that the trend reflects how we deal with difficult situations. During tough times, we dress differently, spend differently, and as a result, we start to act a little differently, too. We see this in our own day-to-day lives, like when you might splurge on a midday sweet treat in between study sessions (shall we theorize a “sweet-treat index”?) to keep you going.

We are all looking for a way to cope with our circumstances, and this reflects in our day-to-day choices. We see this in our university settings as well. Consider an average week of classes, when you might choose to dress up a little just for the fun of it, versus finals week, when you might deprioritize fashion and opt for more comfortable clothing. We adapt based on our circumstances.

The next time you pick out your outfit of the day, consider observing what pieces in your wardrobe are “recession indicators” and what this means to you. Is that beige blazer an example of you branching out into the corporate world? Did you get that button-up shirt because it's versatile? How did you adapt your wardrobe to fit your current state?

“Fashion is part of the daily air, and it changes all the time, with all the events. You can even see the approaching of a revolution in clothes,” said Diana Vreeland, a fashion columnist. Although lipstick, hemlines, or the return of business casual as a party look are not necessarily meaningful tools of predicting economic decline, they are examples of how we are ever evolving to adjust to, cope with, and even find joy during difficult times. When money talks, fashion listens, but the conversation is moderated by us.