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Western European Politics: Tectonic Plates Shifting

The elections to the European Parliament last May were supposed to be different. They were thought to be the first elections for the future of Europe ...

Sep 13, 2014

The elections to the European Parliament last May were supposed to be different. They were thought to be the first elections for the future of Europe by the citizens of Europe. Instead, the event was upstaged by the emergence of parties unfriendly to the European Union.
Some analysts argued that the emergence was temporary and exclusive to the confines of the supranational institution: voters were registering their disgust with the intrusions into daily life by the European Commission and protesting against the incumbents heading their respective national governments. The argument followed that no ramifications in national politics would ensue. In other words, their emergence would be a temporary phenomena.
Four months later, however, the parties that made an indelible mark in the May elections are gaining popularity and seem to be considered viable alternatives to the current incumbents of Western European governments.
The 2009 G8 meeting in London, during the onset of the Global Financial Crisis, marked a beginning of a transition period for Western Europe. At the talks, the newly elected Barack Obama of the U.S., sat down with Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Gordon Brown of the United Kingdom and Silvio Berlusconi of Italy. One similarity that proves to be critical to us now is where these leaders were aligned on the political spectrum. Sarkozy and Berlusconi represented the center-right; Brown and Obama symbolized the center-left. The ruling parties of national governments were moderates.
Within a few short years, the three European leaders were replaced by their ideological rivals. Berlusconi resigned from office, Brown resigned from his post as prime minister and Sarkozy endured a bitter electoral defeat. The European people attempted to counter a stagnant European economy with remedies that spanned the political spectrum. These shifts in power were considered to be breaths of fresh air that would reinvigorate what is collectively the world’s largest economy.
Under David Cameron, the United Kingdom implemented unpopular austerity measures beginning in 2010. The UK fell back into recession within two years. France’s Francois Hollande rejected any notion of austerity and tried to stimulate the private sector. Having failed to revive his country’s economy, the French president is considered to be the most unpopular president ever elected in the history of the Fifth Republic. Italy witnessed Matteo Renzi’s plunge into the abyss; his popularity plummeted to a dismal 40% as Italy begins to experience deflation. The European economy as a whole is crippled with the European Central Bank trying out innovative measures to spur growth.
Voters in Europe have tried the moderate parties that historically have guided the United Kingdom, France and Italy through troubles. Frustrated, hopeless and eager to get out of turbulent economic times, these citizens have begun to register their support for more radical factions. Marie Le Pen’s extreme-right Front National, Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement and Nigel Farage’s anti-immigrant UKIP have seen their popularity rise significantly in 2014. This change, which has the potential to shift the tectonic plates of Western European politics, is cause for concern.
The implications of the aforementioned movements winning national elections, or even greater influence in national political institutions, are immense. Not only would they affect the direction of the EU, but also the social, economic and political landscapes of Italy, France and the UK. Though it may not be a precise indication of what might happen if these parties do win elections, the Hungarian example should give us pause. In 2008, the far-right Fidesz Party won elections in Hungary. Since then, the constitution of the country has been altered in contravention of the EU rules. Some examples include the jettisoning of laws protecting media and freedom of speech and tearing away the judicial branch’s independence.
The problems are compounded by the recent slowdown of the German economy. One could wonder whether a similar far-right, anti-establishment party will emerge as a leading movement in Berlin. Although it has not established its presence yet, the Alternative for Germany party may fill this void.
The emergence of extreme factional parties in each country is a European problem that requires a European solution. The situation stems from the inability of current leaders to find an adequate response to economic stagnation. The response to such anti-European, far-right sentiment is a comprehensive, unified European guide to economic prosperity and institutional redesign that will cater to the grievances of European citizens. It is chilling to think what might occur if these emerging parties were to further gain influence. However, one thing is certain: current European leaders must not only ensure that economic growth becomes the norm again, but must also persuade their citizens that a free, prosperous and tolerant Europe is still possible.
Max Valli is a columnist. Email him at mwv212@nyu.edu
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